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American Psychology and Post 9-11 Terrorism
Dr. Harold Hall, Director

Empirically Based Violence Prediction Systems

The empirically based violence prediction systems available in the mental health-law interface today are presented in the following pages. When available, statistical analyses show that the systems are far less than perfect in terms of sensitivity (e.g., percentage of true positives) and specificity (i.e., percentage of true negatives). The use of multiple measures to predict violence is strongly recommended, along with presenting the test developer's caveats in the manual or book/journal article. Note that one measure (i.e., the Suicide Probability Scale) does not measure violence to others. However, because tendencies for self-destruction are associated with some types of violence to others (e.g., victim-precipitated homicide; murder-suicide), it is included in the list. The Pacific Institute does not endorse or recommend any particular test(s). References follow the table.

Test or Method Predictor Variables Application or Findings References
Meta-analysis of predictors of general and violent recidivism Objective risk assessment, juvenile delinquency, family problems and other factors (based on 52 studies 
and 16,191 persons).		 Recidivism factors for mentally disordered offenders same as for non-disordered offenders. Criminal history best predictor. Clinical factors worst. Bonta, Law & Hanson (1998)
Seriousness scoring system History of harm—injury, sex acts and intimidation based on survey responses of 60,000 Americans. Identifies high seriousness scores for possible intervention; demonstrates escalation over time for individuals. Wolfgang, Figliio, Tracy & Singer (1985)
Psychopathy Check List - Revised (PCL-R) Factors suggesting exploitation of others and chronically unstable lifestyle. Few violence-related items. PCL-R scores are the best single predictor of violence, although scale was not designed for such. For adult males only. Hare (1991)
Violent Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) Developmental, personality and non-violent and violent history items. Includes PCL-R score. Predicts for 7 and 10 years the risk of violent (non-sexual) acts, yielding probabilities. For adult males only. Quinsey, Harris, Rice & Cormier (1998)
Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) Developmental, personality, non-violent and violent history and deviant sexual preferences. Predicts for 7 and 10 years the risk of violent (sexual) assaults, yielding probability scores. For adult males only. Quinsey, Harris, Rice & Cormier (1998)
Meta-analysis of predictions of sexual violence Deviant sexual arousal, violence history and personality factors (based on 61 studies; 28,972 persons). 15-30 year follow-up showed 77% chance of reoffending for previous sex offenses, boy victims and never married status, as one finding. Hanson & Bussier (1998)
Test or Method Predictor Variables Application or Findings References
Rapid risk assessment for sexual offense recidivism (RRASOR) Includes victim and victim-relationship factors, prior sexual offenses and age of release (total sample size of 2,592 persons). Predicts recidivism rates for 5-10 year periods based on four factors gleaned from review of administrative records. Hanson (1997)
Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool - Revised History, victim, substance use and other factors. Predicts for 6 years high versus low risk sex offenders. Epperson, Kaul & Huot (1995)
Static and dynamic risk assessment tools History of sex offenses and demographic factors, attitudes. Provides for low, medium and high risk of sexual offenses. Hanson (1997); Hanson, Scott & Steffy (1992)
California Actuarial Risk Assessment Tables Victim and sex offense history factors. Yields % reoffenses within 5 years for both child molesters and rapists. Schiller & Marques (1999)
Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide (SARA) Spousal assault, criminal history, psychosocial adjustment and alleged most recent (based on 2,309 adult male offenders). Summary ratings include risk of violence toward partner, as well as toward others in general. Risk management strategies associated with SARA scores. Kropp, Hart, Webster & Eaves (1999)
Dangerousness Prediction Decision Tree Remote and recent History of violence, Opportunity and Triggers (HOT) after inhibitions are taken into account. Predicts for 3 months whether individual is more likely than not to be high risk for violent acting out using a 5-step decision path. Hall (1987); Hall & Ebert (2002)
Suicide Probability Scale History, current depression and stress, cognitive variables (based on 1,158 persons) Yields probability score for subclinical to severe risk of suicide behavior. Risk management flows from scores. Cull & Gill (1999 edition)
HCR-20, Version 2 Risk factors include 10 Historical, 5 Clinical and 5 Risk Management items presented within a set of professional guidelines rather than a test or scale. HCR-20 has been researched in Europe and translated into several languages. Webster, Douglas, Eaves & Hart (1997)
SCR-20 Professional guidelines for the assessment of risk for sexual violence are presented. SCR-20 has been researched in Europe and translated into several languages. Boar, Hart, Kropp & Webster (1997)
  1. Boar, D., Hart, S., Kropp, P., & Webster, C. (1997). Manual for Sexual Risk -20. Burnaby, British Columbia: Mental Health, Law & Policy Institute, Simon Frazier University.   
  2. Bonta, J., Law, M., & Hanson, K (1998). The Prediction of Criminal and Violent Recidivism Among Mentally Disordered Offenders: A Meta-Analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 123, 123-142.
  3. Cull, J., & Gill W. (1999 Edition). Suicide Probability Scale (SPS). Los Angeles, California: Western Psychological Services.
  4. Epperson, D.L., Kaul, J.D., & Huot, S.J. (1995, October). Predicting Risk for Recidivism for Incarcerated Sex Offenders: Updated Development on the Sex Offender Screening Tool (SOST). Poster session presented at the Annual Conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, New Orleans, Louisiana.
  5. Hall, H.V., & Ebert, R. (1987; 2nd edition, 2002). Violence Prediction: Guidelines for the Forensic Practitioner. Springfield, Illinois: C.C. Thomas.
  6. Hanson, C., Scott, H., & Steffy, R. (1995). A Comparison of Child Molesters and Non-Sexual Criminals: Risk Predictors and Long-Term Recidivism. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 32, 325-337.
  7. Hanson, R. (1997). Development of a Brief Actuarial Risk Scale for Sexual Offense Recidivism. Department of the Solicitor General of Canada. Public Works and Government Services Canada. Cat. No. J54-1/1997-E, ISBN: o-662-26207-7.
  8. Hanson, R.K., & Bussiere, M. (in press). Predicting Relapse: A Meta-Analysis of Sexual Offender Recidivism Studies. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology.
  9. Hare, R. (1991). Manual for the Hare Psychopathy Check List-Revised. Toronto Multi-Health System.
  10. Kropp. P., Hart, S., Webster, C., & Eaves D. (1999). Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide User's Manual. Toronto, Canada: Multi-Health Systems, Inc. and B.C. Institute Against Family Violence.
  11. Quinsey, G., Harris G., Rice, M., & Cormier, C. (1996). Violent Offenders: Appraising and Managing Risk. Washington, D.C.: American Psychological Association.
  12. Schiller, G., & Marques, J. (1999). California Actuarial Risk Assessment Tables (CARAT). Presented at A. Salter Predicting Sexual Recidivism. Honolulu, Hawaii, 1999. Available from Gary Schiller, Program Development and Evaluation, 1600 Ninth Street, Sacramento, California 95814.
  13. Webster, C., Douglas, K., Eaves, D., & Hart, S. (1997). HCR-20 Assessing Risk for Violence: Version II. Burnaby, British Columbia: Mental Health, Law & Policy Institute, Simon Frazier University.
  14. Wolfgang, J., Figlio, R., Tracy, P., & Singer, S. (1985). The National Survey of Crime Severity. Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 20402. NCJ-96017.
      

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